I hear a lot of comments from skeptics concerning ocean acidification. The gist of the complaints is that the ocean is not turning acid, therefore these claims are all false. Once again, the problem is a result of a lack of understanding. No one is saying the ocean is turned into an acid. Acidification refers to it become less base.
If you need a refresher, the pH scale goes from 0 to 14. Pure water is at 7, completely neutral. Less than 7 is acidic and more than 7 is base. A change in one number is a factor of 10. So, a pH of 9 is ten times more base than a pH of 8. The ocean has had an average pH of about 8.2 for the last 300 million years. In recent years that has changed to 8.1. That is a change of 25% in the acidity of sea water. In other words, it has moved in the direction of the acids, but is still a base.
This change in the pH is caused by the absorption of carbon dioxide in the air, which creates carbonic acid. As the level of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, the ocean absorbs more of it. This is both good and bad. When the ocean takes CO2 out of the air, it slows global warming down. That's good. But, the formation of carbonic acid lowers the ocean's pH and that's bad.
A lower pH puts many forms of sea life at risk. Shellfish are possibly the most vulnerable due to how easily their shells dissolve in acid. A more acidic (less base) ocean makes it more difficult for them to build strong shells. Obviously, coral reefs are also at risk. But, a lower pH will also interfere with other forms of sea life. In fact, it is estimated a lower ocean pH will cost us about $1 trillion every year by the year 2100. I obtained that figure from an excellent source of information on ocean acidification, the paleohistory of ocean acidification and the biological, physical and economic costs associated with acidification.
Now, we have enough sensors we can monitor the oceans, with some gaps, at nearly real time. Read this article in Scientific American about the efforts, or this one on LiveScience.com.
Showing posts with label Ocean Warming. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ocean Warming. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Thursday, March 12, 2015
Oceans Warming Faster Than Believed
Quantifying underestimates of long-term upper-ocean warming, by Paul J. Durack, Peter J. Gleckler, Felix W. Landerer and Karl E. Taylor and published in Nature Climate Change (DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2389) reports on their research to investigate estimates of the ocean heat content (OHC). While there is a record of measurements for the northern hemisphere, there is a lack of measurements in the south. Historically, the few measurements that were actually made were supplemented by using the northern measurements and interpolating values. Durack, et al. found the data for the southern hemisphere was good since 2004, but the heat content before then was underestimated. This, they concluded, underestimated the actual value of the ocean heat content by about 25%. They stated the amount of heat involved was great:
For our purposes here, what this means is the oceans are more sensitive to global warming than previously thought. It is also more evidence that there has been no warming 'pause,' as is frequently claimed. The amount of heat they cite is exceptional, even spread over 35 years. If we were to take the middle value of their range, that comes out to an average of .13 × 1022J yr−1. In comparison, all power plants in the world combined generate about 1018J yr−1, meaning it would take all of our power plants about 1,000 years to generate the amount of energy being absorbed by the oceans every year. That is significant.These adjustments yield large increases (2.2–7.1 × 1022J 35 yr−1) to current global upper-ocean heat content change estimates, and have important implications for sea level, the planetary energy budget and climate sensitivity assessments.
Incidentally, this was done using real data, not models.
Here are some nice graphics showing the progression of ocean heating from 1955 - 2011.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Hurricanes and New England
A study conducted by a team at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute revealed new information about the history of hurricanes striking the New England coast of North America. Using cores of sedimentary deposits, they studied the layers and were able to identify massive hurricane events hitting the area between the years of 250 and 1150 AD.
Hurricanes deposit a layer of sediment in inland areas that get buried and can remain undisturbed for thousands of years. By taking core samples it is possible to identify storms, date them and even determine how strong they were. In this way, the researchers were able to identify 23 events during that time span, each more powerful than anything that has occurred in recorded history. That is an average of one major storm every 40 years. These storms would all be classified as category 3 or 4 hurricanes today. To put that in perspective, there have been only three category 2 hurricanes in that area since the 1600s. The last was Hurricane Bob in 1991. There have been no storms stronger than category 2 to strike New England in that time period.
What has changed? Ocean temperature. Hurricanes require warm water to provide the massive amounts of energy they consume. Ocean temperature in this region of the Atlantic has been cooler for the last 850 years, but not anymore. Today, ocean temperatures are warmer than they were between 250 and 1150. Take a look at this plot:
The Atlantic, from the Caribbean Sea up past New England is much warmer than the baseline average. In fact, the North Atlantic is .51 degrees C warmer than average (numbers on bottom of image). The authors of the paper state today's ocean temperature is higher than during the study period.
Does this mean New England can expect a category 3 or 4 hurricane every 40 years on average? No, not by itself. There are many factors involved with the development of hurricanes and their paths. Without more detailed data we cannot reach an absolute conclusion that New England will get hit by big storms. But, it certainly means the risk is greater than we thought.
Hurricanes deposit a layer of sediment in inland areas that get buried and can remain undisturbed for thousands of years. By taking core samples it is possible to identify storms, date them and even determine how strong they were. In this way, the researchers were able to identify 23 events during that time span, each more powerful than anything that has occurred in recorded history. That is an average of one major storm every 40 years. These storms would all be classified as category 3 or 4 hurricanes today. To put that in perspective, there have been only three category 2 hurricanes in that area since the 1600s. The last was Hurricane Bob in 1991. There have been no storms stronger than category 2 to strike New England in that time period.
What has changed? Ocean temperature. Hurricanes require warm water to provide the massive amounts of energy they consume. Ocean temperature in this region of the Atlantic has been cooler for the last 850 years, but not anymore. Today, ocean temperatures are warmer than they were between 250 and 1150. Take a look at this plot:
 |
| Source: Climate Reanalyzer |
Does this mean New England can expect a category 3 or 4 hurricane every 40 years on average? No, not by itself. There are many factors involved with the development of hurricanes and their paths. Without more detailed data we cannot reach an absolute conclusion that New England will get hit by big storms. But, it certainly means the risk is greater than we thought.
Friday, January 16, 2015
It's Official - 2014 Hottest Year Ever Recorded
NASA and NOAA released the annual state of the climate report for 2014 this morning. They also held a live streaming video of a joint press conference. The report came out 30 minutes prior to the news conference and was on the National Climatic Data Center website. At least, that is what I was told. When I tried to get into both the NCDC site and the streaming conference they were so busy I was unable to. I missed the conference all together and it took a full hour to see the report. Apparently, people all over the world were eager to hear what they had to say. That is a good thing. It means this issue is getting a lot of attention. Hopefully, that will translate into some actions.
Now for the report highlights.
As expected, the report for December stated it was the hottest December ever recorded for the globe.
Also to no surprise, 2014 was the hottest year ever recorded. The report stated
What is disturbing about last year's heat is that it did not have an El Nino. For more than 30 years, each hottest year all had El Ninos, including the very extreme year of 1998 which deniers like to cherry pick as their starting point on heat records. This was the first time since 1990 that a year without an El Nino set the heat record. What that means is that a regular year is now hotter than an extreme year 16 years ago. At this rate, we will look back on 1998 with fondness and longing, in terms of temperature. (Ah, yes! 1998! The good old days.)
Tell me once again about how there has been no warming for 17 years.
An article in Scientific American listed five of the hottest places on Earth:
The annual report gave this tally for the year:
The tally I kept from the monthly reports was somewhat different (they are now saying April was the second warmest and the monthly report lists it as tied for warmest) and came out this way:
December was the hottest December ever recorded;
November was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October was the hottest October ever recorded;
September was the hottest September ever recorded;
August was the hottest August ever recorded;
July was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May was the hottest May ever recorded;
April tied 2010 as the hottest April ever recorded;
March was the fourth hottest March ever recorded;
We got a break in February. It was only the 21st hottest February ever recorded;
But, that break followed the hottest January since 2007 and the fourth hottest January on record.
So, let's see what the final score was for 2014: one 21st hottest month, one 7th hottest month, three 4th hottest months, and seven hottest months ever.
Additionally, we had the hottest overall year ever recorded.
Now for the report highlights.
As expected, the report for December stated it was the hottest December ever recorded for the globe.
Also to no surprise, 2014 was the hottest year ever recorded. The report stated
The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.I wonder how many people claiming global warming has stopped will read those last two statements. Nine of the ten hottest years have occurred since the year 2000. How is that possible, if warming has stopped?
What is disturbing about last year's heat is that it did not have an El Nino. For more than 30 years, each hottest year all had El Ninos, including the very extreme year of 1998 which deniers like to cherry pick as their starting point on heat records. This was the first time since 1990 that a year without an El Nino set the heat record. What that means is that a regular year is now hotter than an extreme year 16 years ago. At this rate, we will look back on 1998 with fondness and longing, in terms of temperature. (Ah, yes! 1998! The good old days.)
Tell me once again about how there has been no warming for 17 years.
An article in Scientific American listed five of the hottest places on Earth:
- Australia set heat records for the second year in a row, including heat waves in the (southern) summer with temperatures over 120 degrees F; followed by heat waves in the fall and spring.
- Eastern Pacific Ocean: An El Nino was expected to form this year, but failed to appear. This didn't stop the region from setting temperature records. NOAA reported the sea surface temperature for the global ocean was 1.13 F (.63 C) above the 20th century average for the September to November time period. The previous record was 0.11 F (.06 C).
- Siberia: The Arctic region has seen the greatest amount of warming in recent decades and Siberia saw temperatures 9 F (5 C) above the 1981 - 2010 average (where is that heat island effect in Siberia?). Ice on the Ob River broke up two weeks earlier than normal.
- California: Record drought, record heat. The first 10 months of 2014 were the warmest in state history since 1895.
- Northern Europe: While the U.S. had a cold winter, that same weather pattern caused it to be warmer than usual in Europe. Many countries saw the warmest spring in as much as 100 years. January to October was the warmest 10-month period on record for Central England since 1659, and the warmest such period for the Netherlands since 1706.
The annual report gave this tally for the year:
Six months of 2014 (May, June, August, September, October, and December) were record warm, while April was second warmest, January, March, and July were fourth warmest for their respective months, and November was seventh warmest.
The tally I kept from the monthly reports was somewhat different (they are now saying April was the second warmest and the monthly report lists it as tied for warmest) and came out this way:
December was the hottest December ever recorded;
November was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;
October was the hottest October ever recorded;
September was the hottest September ever recorded;
August was the hottest August ever recorded;
July was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May was the hottest May ever recorded;
April tied 2010 as the hottest April ever recorded;
March was the fourth hottest March ever recorded;
We got a break in February. It was only the 21st hottest February ever recorded;
But, that break followed the hottest January since 2007 and the fourth hottest January on record.
So, let's see what the final score was for 2014: one 21st hottest month, one 7th hottest month, three 4th hottest months, and seven hottest months ever.
Additionally, we had the hottest overall year ever recorded.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Oceans Are Even Hotter Than We Thought
We know the oceans are heating at an alarming rate. Take a look at this plot of ocean temperature anomalies for today:
This not only shows the sea surface temperature anomaly graphically (Wow! That's a lot of red!), but the numbers at the bottom show the anomalies for different regions of the planet. These numbers represent the anomaly for the listed region between today's measured temperature and the long-term average.
As we can see, there is a lot of excess heat being stored in the upper-layer of the ocean. But, a new report indicates it is actually worse than we thought. A paper published in Nature Climate Change says researchers, using data from Argo floating ocean buoys, have found the temperature rise is actually higher than what has been thought - and by a significant amount. The error is attributed to poor data collection in the southern hemisphere. Now, Argo data indicates the sea surface temperature has been rising between 24% and 55% faster since 1970 than previously thought.
That is highly significant.
If you are not familiar with the Argo buoy network, it consists of thousands of free-floating buoys throughout the world. The buoys are designed to float at depth and take direct measurements of the ocean depths down to 2000 meters (surface temperatures can be recorded daily by satellite sensors). After about 10 days, the buoy will inflate a bladder that will make it float to the surface where it will make satellite contact and transmit its data. The buoy will then deflate the bladder and sink again. The battery operated buoys last about four years. The network has been in operation since 2000 and now has about 3500 buoys floating all over the world. This is an obvious upgrade to the old method of collecting data by lowering instruments over the side of research ships. The amount and currency of data is vastly improved and that data is made available to the public via the program website.
One of the consequences of this is the realization of what it means for us here on the land. Eventually, a much warmer ocean will mean a much warmer atmosphere, along with all of the consequences of that warming such as higher utility bills, more expensive food, increased insurance rates and more severe weather.
I'm sorry, I think I just heard another politician say he isn't a scientists but we shouldn't do anything about climate change. I might have been mistaken. It is possible it was the sound of another billionaire counting the money he is making because we still aren't addressing climate change. Its hard to tell because they sound the same.
 |
| Source: Climate Reanalyzer |
As we can see, there is a lot of excess heat being stored in the upper-layer of the ocean. But, a new report indicates it is actually worse than we thought. A paper published in Nature Climate Change says researchers, using data from Argo floating ocean buoys, have found the temperature rise is actually higher than what has been thought - and by a significant amount. The error is attributed to poor data collection in the southern hemisphere. Now, Argo data indicates the sea surface temperature has been rising between 24% and 55% faster since 1970 than previously thought.
That is highly significant.
If you are not familiar with the Argo buoy network, it consists of thousands of free-floating buoys throughout the world. The buoys are designed to float at depth and take direct measurements of the ocean depths down to 2000 meters (surface temperatures can be recorded daily by satellite sensors). After about 10 days, the buoy will inflate a bladder that will make it float to the surface where it will make satellite contact and transmit its data. The buoy will then deflate the bladder and sink again. The battery operated buoys last about four years. The network has been in operation since 2000 and now has about 3500 buoys floating all over the world. This is an obvious upgrade to the old method of collecting data by lowering instruments over the side of research ships. The amount and currency of data is vastly improved and that data is made available to the public via the program website.
One of the consequences of this is the realization of what it means for us here on the land. Eventually, a much warmer ocean will mean a much warmer atmosphere, along with all of the consequences of that warming such as higher utility bills, more expensive food, increased insurance rates and more severe weather.
I'm sorry, I think I just heard another politician say he isn't a scientists but we shouldn't do anything about climate change. I might have been mistaken. It is possible it was the sound of another billionaire counting the money he is making because we still aren't addressing climate change. Its hard to tell because they sound the same.
Monday, October 6, 2014
Ocean Depths Not Getting Warmer
Scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have found that the deep oceans below 2000 meters have warmed little, if any, since 2005. This was a very neat study using in situ measurements as well as satellite data. What they did was to measure the increase in total ocean heat content and then subtract what has been measured in the top 2000 meters. What was left over was the amount of warming occurring in the oceans below 2000 meters and they found that it was small, if any.
I am not at all surprised by this result. I know that many people have been saying heat is being stored in the lower levels of the ocean, but my review of the literature did not lead me to that conclusion. There are many reasons, but the fact is that the majority of the deep ocean water originates in the polar areas. As sea water freezes it extrudes the salt, creating a briny soup which is heavier than the surrounding sea water and sinks. Nearly all deep ocean currents originate in the vicinity of Antarctica. For this reason alone, I would have been surprised that the deep ocean was warming. The ocean water around Antarctica is warming, but the briny water will still be nearly freezing because it originates from freezing water. Of course, it is much more complicated than that and there are many other factors involved, but this is the starting point. I just don't see any mechanism to transport heat from the upper-levels to the lower. It all has led me to the conclusion that I was not expecting to find much deep ocean heating.
Now, I know many contrarians are going to point at this study and claim that the oceans are not warming and that is NOT what this study says. What they found is that the DEEP ocean is not warming a perceptible amount. But, note that the only way you can get that result is by finding the upper levels are warming. The way they measured the lower heating is by taking the total heating and subtracting the known amount of upper-level heating. So, this result is only possible with the existence of that upper-level heating.
So, this is a very neat and important study. It does nothing to contradict anything we know about anthropogenic climate change, but it does illustrate we still have lots to learn - and that is not really news.
I am not at all surprised by this result. I know that many people have been saying heat is being stored in the lower levels of the ocean, but my review of the literature did not lead me to that conclusion. There are many reasons, but the fact is that the majority of the deep ocean water originates in the polar areas. As sea water freezes it extrudes the salt, creating a briny soup which is heavier than the surrounding sea water and sinks. Nearly all deep ocean currents originate in the vicinity of Antarctica. For this reason alone, I would have been surprised that the deep ocean was warming. The ocean water around Antarctica is warming, but the briny water will still be nearly freezing because it originates from freezing water. Of course, it is much more complicated than that and there are many other factors involved, but this is the starting point. I just don't see any mechanism to transport heat from the upper-levels to the lower. It all has led me to the conclusion that I was not expecting to find much deep ocean heating.
Now, I know many contrarians are going to point at this study and claim that the oceans are not warming and that is NOT what this study says. What they found is that the DEEP ocean is not warming a perceptible amount. But, note that the only way you can get that result is by finding the upper levels are warming. The way they measured the lower heating is by taking the total heating and subtracting the known amount of upper-level heating. So, this result is only possible with the existence of that upper-level heating.
So, this is a very neat and important study. It does nothing to contradict anything we know about anthropogenic climate change, but it does illustrate we still have lots to learn - and that is not really news.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Climate March and the Economy
Much to the dismay of the fossil fuel industry and the professional deniers, the People's Climate March held in New York City was an enormous success. Organizers had predicted 100,000 people would show up, while police said they expected 30,000. The reality is that more than 400,000 people participated in the march in New York, with thousands of related marches in cities all over the world. I noted that Fox News has their coverage of the event buried way back in their climate section without a word of it on the front page. I had to do a search to find the article. Meanwhile, I found front page coverage of the event on CNN, Yahoo! News, Google News, CBS News, and CNN Money, just to name a few after a quick search.
The denier industry is working on spin control on this one. Already, what they are saying is that its unimportant and people aren't concerned with climate change. Their evidence is to point to a recent Gallup Poll that showed 41% of respondents listing economic issues as the most important issue facing the country, while only 1% listed climate change/environment as the most important issue. (You can apparently make more than one selection, so the total percentage is 141%.) So, is this proof that people aren't concerned with climate change? No, this is actually just the latest example of how the denier industry is in the business of lying and deceiving.
Keep in mind this poll asked about what is the "most important problem", and didn't ask about what you might find to be the second most important problem, or the third. A Gallup poll from last spring showed that 39% described themselves as "Concerned Believers." Only 25% described themselves as "Cool Skeptics." Obviously, more than 1% of the population is concerned about climate change. That, by itself, puts the lie to the deniers.
But, that isn't the end of the story. Keep in mind, 41% said they thought economic issues were the most important. So, what does that have to do with climate change? Well, everything. Climate change is all about economic issues. Remember, it is the economy that led to global warming and it is the economy that is suffering because of it.
While contrarians made comments on this blog or sent me emails about how there was a big cold front across the Eastern U.S., with snow in the upper-Midwest, in early September, they ignored (very typical behavior) what was going on in the rest of the world, such as California. The West Coast, at the same time as the cool front in the east, was suffering a record heat wave and had to issue heat alerts as the temperature soared to record levels and was over 100 degrees in some areas. The Los Angeles interim health director cautioned people about the heat and stated, "it can be dangerous and even deadly," something we know about here in Texas, but the people in LA are not use to this kind of heat and many are unprepared. As a result, many will suffer and many will crank up the air conditioner, which will put a strain on the overstretched California power grid and drive up people's utility bills. Money they could have been spending on other things will now go to the utilities. Where do you make cuts in the household budget to pay extra utility expenses when the budget is already tight?
This is just the tip of the rapidly melting iceberg for California. Of course, the big news is the drought. Over 82% of the state is listed as being in "extreme" or "exceptional" drought. The National Weather Service is considering adding a new category to more properly classify the situation in California. Towns are going without water and over 17,000 jobs have been lost in the agriculture business. Estimates are that California will lose over $800 million worth of agriculture business because of the drought, part of the $2.2 billion in losses and added expenses the California agriculture sector will suffer this year. And, if you don't think you will pay for that loss I suggest you take a look at the prices at your local grocery store.
So many farmers are pumping ground water for irrigation that the ground is sinking and has already caused $1.3 billion in damage to roads, bridges and pipelines. An emergency $7.5 billion water bond is on the November ballot to expand the size of the reservoirs. Just looking at those last two items adds up to $8.8 billion to the 38 million people of California - over $230 per person, or nearly $1000 for a family of four. Keep in mind, that is the cost of just those two issues and doesn't include things like those lost ag jobs and lost ag business - and wildfires.
The drought has made the wildfire situation worse in California by drying out the landscape. One wildfire recently tripled in size and extended itself by more than 10 miles over night, a record growth, and forced the evacuation of over 3000 people while threatening 12,000 homes. Another fire destroyed 150 buildings in a northern California town. Again, someone will have to pay for all of this and I'm sure you can guess who it will be. Governments, businesses and insurance agencies will all pass the losses on to the consumer.
But, what about other areas?
Here is a news article about how the warming oceans are leading to changes in the range of fish. This will lead to overfishing of some species and loss of habitat for others - neither scenario being good for us. Expect to see the cost of seafood go up. And, if you are in the fishing industry, you are probably concerned about your future.
When it comes to insurance expect bad things. There were over $35 billion in U.S. private insured property losses in 2012 alone, $11 billion more than the average over the previous decade. That is about $115 per person across the U.S. for just 2012. Insurance companies are completely convinced that climate change is responsible. Their response? Raise rates, deny coverage or even drop existing coverage. One way or the other, they will get their $35 billion back.
So, we see there are lost jobs, increased costs, higher utility bills, destroyed homes and businesses, increased taxes, higher insurance rates, lowered standard of living - and all because of climate change.
Yes, we really should have economic issues as our number one concern.
The denier industry is working on spin control on this one. Already, what they are saying is that its unimportant and people aren't concerned with climate change. Their evidence is to point to a recent Gallup Poll that showed 41% of respondents listing economic issues as the most important issue facing the country, while only 1% listed climate change/environment as the most important issue. (You can apparently make more than one selection, so the total percentage is 141%.) So, is this proof that people aren't concerned with climate change? No, this is actually just the latest example of how the denier industry is in the business of lying and deceiving.
Keep in mind this poll asked about what is the "most important problem", and didn't ask about what you might find to be the second most important problem, or the third. A Gallup poll from last spring showed that 39% described themselves as "Concerned Believers." Only 25% described themselves as "Cool Skeptics." Obviously, more than 1% of the population is concerned about climate change. That, by itself, puts the lie to the deniers.
But, that isn't the end of the story. Keep in mind, 41% said they thought economic issues were the most important. So, what does that have to do with climate change? Well, everything. Climate change is all about economic issues. Remember, it is the economy that led to global warming and it is the economy that is suffering because of it.
While contrarians made comments on this blog or sent me emails about how there was a big cold front across the Eastern U.S., with snow in the upper-Midwest, in early September, they ignored (very typical behavior) what was going on in the rest of the world, such as California. The West Coast, at the same time as the cool front in the east, was suffering a record heat wave and had to issue heat alerts as the temperature soared to record levels and was over 100 degrees in some areas. The Los Angeles interim health director cautioned people about the heat and stated, "it can be dangerous and even deadly," something we know about here in Texas, but the people in LA are not use to this kind of heat and many are unprepared. As a result, many will suffer and many will crank up the air conditioner, which will put a strain on the overstretched California power grid and drive up people's utility bills. Money they could have been spending on other things will now go to the utilities. Where do you make cuts in the household budget to pay extra utility expenses when the budget is already tight?
This is just the tip of the rapidly melting iceberg for California. Of course, the big news is the drought. Over 82% of the state is listed as being in "extreme" or "exceptional" drought. The National Weather Service is considering adding a new category to more properly classify the situation in California. Towns are going without water and over 17,000 jobs have been lost in the agriculture business. Estimates are that California will lose over $800 million worth of agriculture business because of the drought, part of the $2.2 billion in losses and added expenses the California agriculture sector will suffer this year. And, if you don't think you will pay for that loss I suggest you take a look at the prices at your local grocery store.
So many farmers are pumping ground water for irrigation that the ground is sinking and has already caused $1.3 billion in damage to roads, bridges and pipelines. An emergency $7.5 billion water bond is on the November ballot to expand the size of the reservoirs. Just looking at those last two items adds up to $8.8 billion to the 38 million people of California - over $230 per person, or nearly $1000 for a family of four. Keep in mind, that is the cost of just those two issues and doesn't include things like those lost ag jobs and lost ag business - and wildfires.
The drought has made the wildfire situation worse in California by drying out the landscape. One wildfire recently tripled in size and extended itself by more than 10 miles over night, a record growth, and forced the evacuation of over 3000 people while threatening 12,000 homes. Another fire destroyed 150 buildings in a northern California town. Again, someone will have to pay for all of this and I'm sure you can guess who it will be. Governments, businesses and insurance agencies will all pass the losses on to the consumer.
But, what about other areas?
Here is a news article about how the warming oceans are leading to changes in the range of fish. This will lead to overfishing of some species and loss of habitat for others - neither scenario being good for us. Expect to see the cost of seafood go up. And, if you are in the fishing industry, you are probably concerned about your future.
When it comes to insurance expect bad things. There were over $35 billion in U.S. private insured property losses in 2012 alone, $11 billion more than the average over the previous decade. That is about $115 per person across the U.S. for just 2012. Insurance companies are completely convinced that climate change is responsible. Their response? Raise rates, deny coverage or even drop existing coverage. One way or the other, they will get their $35 billion back.
So, we see there are lost jobs, increased costs, higher utility bills, destroyed homes and businesses, increased taxes, higher insurance rates, lowered standard of living - and all because of climate change.
Yes, we really should have economic issues as our number one concern.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
August State of the Climate Continues Trend
NOAA released its August 2014 State of the Global Climate report this morning and the bad news continues. Here are some of the highlights:
This report continues the trend we have been seeing all year. See my previous postings on the state of the climate for June and July.
This is really grim. But, you know what the worst part is? Deniers will point at last weekend's cold snap and say that there is no global warming.
Let's update the tally for the year:
August was the hottest August ever recorded;
July was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May was the hottest May ever recorded;
April tied 2010 as the hottest April ever recorded;
March was the fourth hottest March ever recorded;
We got a break in February. It was only the 21st hottest February ever recorded;
But, that break followed the hottest January since 2007 and the fourth hottest January on record.
So, let's see what the score is so far for 2014: one 21st hottest month, three 4th hottest months, and four hottest months ever.
And, overall, 2014 is on track to be the third hottest year ever recorded.
But, the deniers will continue to claim the warming has stopped. That only works to make bad news even worse.
- The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was record high for the month, at 0.75°C (1.35°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F), topping the previous record set in 1998.
- The global land surface temperature was 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F), the second highest on record for August, behind 1998.
- For the ocean, the August global sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high departure from average not only beats the previous August record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F).
- The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for the June–August period was also record high for this period, at 0.71°C (1.28°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), beating the previous record set in 1998.
- The June–August worldwide land surface temperature was 0.91°C (1.64°F) above the 20th century average, the fifth highest on record for this period. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average, the highest on record for June–August. This beats the previous record set in 2009 by 0.04°C (0.07°F).
- The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for January–August (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.3°F), the third highest for this eight-month period on record.
This report continues the trend we have been seeing all year. See my previous postings on the state of the climate for June and July.
This is really grim. But, you know what the worst part is? Deniers will point at last weekend's cold snap and say that there is no global warming.
Let's update the tally for the year:
August was the hottest August ever recorded;
July was the fourth hottest July ever recorded;
June 2014 was the hottest June ever recorded;
May was the hottest May ever recorded;
April tied 2010 as the hottest April ever recorded;
March was the fourth hottest March ever recorded;
We got a break in February. It was only the 21st hottest February ever recorded;
But, that break followed the hottest January since 2007 and the fourth hottest January on record.
So, let's see what the score is so far for 2014: one 21st hottest month, three 4th hottest months, and four hottest months ever.
And, overall, 2014 is on track to be the third hottest year ever recorded.
But, the deniers will continue to claim the warming has stopped. That only works to make bad news even worse.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Tropical Storms in the Southwest
The remnants of Hurricane Norbert hit the Southwestern U.S. this week and caused havoc. Record rainfall in the region caused flooding, closed roads and led to at least two deaths. To really add injury to injury, the flooding is not likely to help with the drought. The system missed the areas hardest hit by the drought and didn't help at all. Even in areas that got rain, the rain came so hard and fast that it ran off rather than soak in. Some, of course, will be caught in the reservoirs and will provide some help, but most will lost.
A tropical storm system hitting this region is very unusual. Just look at the fact that it was not only the single day record rain, but it really shattered the old record. Norbert dumped 3.29 inches on Phoenix on Monday. The old single day record was 2.91 inches and was 81-years old. The new record is more than 13% higher than the old one. (There was also a 4.98 inch rainfall in 1911 that occurred over two days, but within a 24-hour period, making it the 24-hour record holder.) What isn't revealed in that statistic is that the 3.29 inches fell in just seven hours. You don't see this kind of record history very often in places that get tropical storms on a regular basis.
According to Wikipedia, there have been four tropical storms that have hit the Southwester U.S. with gale force winds since 1900. Norbert was not the fifth. Storm organization had degraded quickly when the storm hit Mexico and wind speeds dropped precipitously.
So, why do so few storms hit this region? After all, there are lots of Pacific storms that form in this region and tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere tend to hook towards the Northeast. You would think this would create a situation conducive for West Coast storm strikes.
The answer lies in the ocean temperature. The California Current along the West Coast originates in the north and moves southwards along the continental margin. Take a look at this plot from Climate Reanalyzer showing the ocean temperature for September 11, 2014:
The light blue band along the coast line clearly shows how the waters in this region are cooler than ocean waters farther out to sea (to the left, or west). There are two things that are needed for tropical cyclone development: warm ocean water and a lack of high-altitude wind shear. As it turns out, the California Current not only cools the water, it also leads to high-altitude wind shear. Storms that form and move into this region run right into a hurricane killer. The U.S. West Coast has it very own hurricane-barrier.
But, what is going to happen as the ocean gets warmer as a result of climate change? We don't need to speculate, we can look at the record and we can see what is already happening.
While Norbert didn't bring gale force winds, it did fall in the category of tropical storm remnant affecting the Southwest. Again, according to Wikipedia (not a research quality source, but adequate for our purpose here), there have been 67 storms (not including Norbert) that are recorded to have had an impact on California.
This graph shows the ocean temperature started a significant increase in the late-1960s. Remember, tropical storms need warm water. We would expect, if all things remain equal (a bad assumption, but a good starting point) that the California hurricane barrier would start to break down and that is what the data seems to be indicating.
Take a look at this plot, also from Climate Reanalyzer:
This plot shows the temperature anomaly for September 11, 2014, the same day as the other ocean temperature plot. The difference between the two is the first plot showed the actual water temperature and this one shows the difference between the actual temperature and the average temperature. Just as the above plot clearly showed the California Current to provide cooler waters along the West Coast, this one shows, equally clearly, that the waters along the West Coast are getting warmer. Quite a bit so, in fact.
Does this mean California and the Southwest can expect more tropical storm remnants? I believe the data shows that is already happening. Does this mean there is a possible relief for the long-term drought? Again, I believe the data already shows this is not the case. Droughts are relieved, and caused, by long-term changes in the precipitation pattern. Flash floods with large amounts of runoff are not going to provide the relief needed. That will take long, soaking rains and heavy snowfall in the mountains. In fact, there is evidence the warming oceans is what is actually causing the drought.
The conclusion I reach from this is that this region is already experiencing severe effects from global warming and will continue to see them into the future.
A tropical storm system hitting this region is very unusual. Just look at the fact that it was not only the single day record rain, but it really shattered the old record. Norbert dumped 3.29 inches on Phoenix on Monday. The old single day record was 2.91 inches and was 81-years old. The new record is more than 13% higher than the old one. (There was also a 4.98 inch rainfall in 1911 that occurred over two days, but within a 24-hour period, making it the 24-hour record holder.) What isn't revealed in that statistic is that the 3.29 inches fell in just seven hours. You don't see this kind of record history very often in places that get tropical storms on a regular basis.
According to Wikipedia, there have been four tropical storms that have hit the Southwester U.S. with gale force winds since 1900. Norbert was not the fifth. Storm organization had degraded quickly when the storm hit Mexico and wind speeds dropped precipitously.
So, why do so few storms hit this region? After all, there are lots of Pacific storms that form in this region and tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere tend to hook towards the Northeast. You would think this would create a situation conducive for West Coast storm strikes.
The answer lies in the ocean temperature. The California Current along the West Coast originates in the north and moves southwards along the continental margin. Take a look at this plot from Climate Reanalyzer showing the ocean temperature for September 11, 2014:
 |
| Source: Climate Reanalyzer |
But, what is going to happen as the ocean gets warmer as a result of climate change? We don't need to speculate, we can look at the record and we can see what is already happening.
While Norbert didn't bring gale force winds, it did fall in the category of tropical storm remnant affecting the Southwest. Again, according to Wikipedia (not a research quality source, but adequate for our purpose here), there have been 67 storms (not including Norbert) that are recorded to have had an impact on California.
Adding Norbert, this list indicates that there have been 39 of the 68 storms since the beginning of the 1970s, over 57% of all of the storms on this list. Why did I use that time span? Take a look at this graph for the answer:
Number of recorded storms impacting California Period Number of storms Pre-1930 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
 |
| Source: NOAA |
This graph shows the ocean temperature started a significant increase in the late-1960s. Remember, tropical storms need warm water. We would expect, if all things remain equal (a bad assumption, but a good starting point) that the California hurricane barrier would start to break down and that is what the data seems to be indicating.
Take a look at this plot, also from Climate Reanalyzer:
 |
| Source: Climate Reanalyzer |
This plot shows the temperature anomaly for September 11, 2014, the same day as the other ocean temperature plot. The difference between the two is the first plot showed the actual water temperature and this one shows the difference between the actual temperature and the average temperature. Just as the above plot clearly showed the California Current to provide cooler waters along the West Coast, this one shows, equally clearly, that the waters along the West Coast are getting warmer. Quite a bit so, in fact.
Does this mean California and the Southwest can expect more tropical storm remnants? I believe the data shows that is already happening. Does this mean there is a possible relief for the long-term drought? Again, I believe the data already shows this is not the case. Droughts are relieved, and caused, by long-term changes in the precipitation pattern. Flash floods with large amounts of runoff are not going to provide the relief needed. That will take long, soaking rains and heavy snowfall in the mountains. In fact, there is evidence the warming oceans is what is actually causing the drought.
The conclusion I reach from this is that this region is already experiencing severe effects from global warming and will continue to see them into the future.
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